Dan Marshall, a veteran developer from Size Five Games, has expressed that predicting success on Steam is increasingly complex. He mentions, “Everything has changed. Everything is harder work.”

In the past, developers could capitalize on trends with relative ease, but today the market feels unpredictable. He states:
“Why did Balatro take off? You could write a million f*ing essays about why that took off, and none of them will be definitely right.”
Marshall attributes some successes to blind luck, underscoring that even strong games can go unnoticed.

He reminisces about earlier tactics that would easily lead to success, explaining how the relationship dynamics of platform followers have shifted significantly, making it challenging for even the most hyped games to gain traction.

In conclusion, Marshall emphasizes that while some mechanics of success have evolved, the core remains—producing a quality game. However, he admits that even this is no guarantee against obscurity in today’s saturated market.