Goodbye and Thank You for the Satellite Debris: SpaceSail's Bold Plan to Deploy 15,000 Satellites by 2030
Space/Tech

Goodbye and Thank You for the Satellite Debris: SpaceSail's Bold Plan to Deploy 15,000 Satellites by 2030

China's space-based internet rival, SpaceSail, aims to launch 15,000 satellites by the end of the decade, intensifying competition in low Earth orbit.

If I mention “satellite-based internet provider”, your mind likely jumps to Starlink. Owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Starlink has rolled out over 8,000 satellites as of February 22, 2025, with plans for more.

However, competitors are now emerging, particularly SpaceSail, a Chinese state-supported company, which aims to have 15,000 satellites in orbit by 2030. They inked an agreement for internet service in Brazil last year and are negotiating with over 30 other nations for similar contracts (via Reuters). Brazil is also in discussions with Bezos’s Project Kuiper, which plans to launch thousands of its own satellites.

The Chinese government perceives Musk’s growing dominance in the satellite market as a potential threat, particularly after observing the critical role of Starlink in the Ukraine conflict. Last year, China reportedly launched a record 263 Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, but that’s dwarfed by SpaceSail’s goal of deploying 648 satellites this year, along with around 14,000 more over the next five years.

SpaceSail is working towards a project known as the Qianfan or “Thousand Sails Constellation,” aimed at creating a satellite-based global internet system. This initiative began in 2023, with the release of the “Shanghai Action Plan to Promote Commercial Aerospace Development and Create a Space Information Industry Highland”—which likely sounds more appealing in Chinese than in translation.

Meanwhile, Starlink has its own plans to launch 12,000 satellites, with future ambitions to grow that number to 42,000.

This impending increase in satellite traffic raises serious concerns. With more satellites in orbit, there is a higher risk of collisions that could generate space debris. Furthermore, re-entering these satellites into Earth’s atmosphere poses its own challenges. Harvard and Smithsonian astronomer Jonathon McDowell estimates that there is now “a Starlink reentry almost every day… sometimes multiple,” and each Starlink unit is typically replaced every five years.

Astronomers worry that as these aluminum satellites burn upon entering the atmosphere, they may contribute to aluminum oxide ash, which could accumulate dangerously high in the atmosphere and impact Earth’s ozone layer.

In tandem with ongoing rocket launches, the resulting emissions have adverse environmental impacts too. SpaceX has incorporated reusable rocket stages to alleviate some of this strain, although this sustainable practice isn’t universally adopted among satellite providers.

Lastly, concerns are raising about visibility. SpaceX’s satellites are already noticeable to the naked eye and have been criticized for blinding radio telescopes, ironically hindering astronomers’ efforts to enhance our understanding of space.

Despite the known and potential issues, the advancement of satellite technology seems unstoppable. Many satellites in the future may affect the night skies, while also potentially improving worldwide internet access. As we often explore just because we can—and not necessarily because we should—the allure of progress doesn’t seem to be waning.

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