New Chip Manufacturing Roadmap Projects 10nm Silicon Arrival by 2039, Yet Moore's Law Persists
A recent roadmap indicates that advancements in chip manufacturing will not see true 10nm technology until 2039, even as Moore's Law continues to thrive.
According to the latest roadmap from the chip research and engineering organization IMEC, true 10nm silicon technology will not be realized until 2039. Recent discussions surrounding Moore’s Law have impacted perceptions about the pace of advancements in chip manufacturing.
Key Insights from IMEC’s Roadmap
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Moore’s Law Still Relevant: Despite predictions that Moore’s Law would falter, IMEC asserts that chip complexity continues to double approximately every two years.
- _“Moore’s Law isn’t a fundamental law of nature; it’s an observation of past trends projected into the future.”
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Future Technology Advances: Progression is expected from current 3nm technology to 14A in 2027 (equivalent to 1.4nm), and ultimately to sub-2A nodes under 0.2nm by 2039.
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Manufacturing Techniques: Future lithography techniques, including advanced EUV lithography, are anticipated to enable production at these tiny dimensions.
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Material Innovations: Innovations such as nanosheet and fork sheet transistors are expected to be incorporated as the industry seeks to boost transistor density.
Despite some skepticism about cost implications in advanced chip manufacturing, IMEC’s outlook suggests that the trajectory of progress remains optimistic, and advancements will likely proceed consistently until 2039.
